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MAY 20,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:28 P.M. ET: 

MITCH MASHES – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell beat back a primary challenge and easily won renomination tonight in Kentucky.  The endorsement of Kentucky's other Senator, Rand Paul, helped him, and payback will be expected.  Now McConnell faces a serious reelection challenge from Dem candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes, who is getting Democratic money from all over the country.  McConnell is correctly attempting to tie Grimes to Barack Obama, who is intensely unpopular in the state.

OH DEAR, BANISH HER – Chelsea Clinton's mother-in-law, former Dem Congresswoman Marjorie Margolies, of Pennsylvania, attempted a comeback this year, and has just been handily defeated in the Democratic primary by Brendan Boyle, who took plenty of heat because he favors abortion restrictions, a sin in the Democratic Party.  Margolies, whose son Marc is married to Chelsea, had the active support of Bill and Hillary, whose advice was ignored by the voters.  It's another setback for Hillary, who has had a very bad political month.

SHE EMERGES – Speaking of Hillary, it is now announced that she will sit for her first TV interviews in a very long time.  Ostensibly, the interviews are about her new book, which will soon be launched.  The interviewers will be reliable liberals Diane Sawyer (once a Nixon stalwart) and Robin Roberts of ABC, so don't expect any probing questions.  We get the feeling that Hillary realizes she's slipped recently, with questions about her record as secretary of state, and about her health.  Also, statements by Obama buddy Deval Patrick, governor of Massachusetts, questioning the desirability of an "inevitable" nominee, have jolted the Democratic Party.  Hillary is starting to hustle.  The coronation doesn't look quite so definite.

NOT EXACTLY A WHOPPER – From CBS:  "NEW YORK (CBSMiami/AP) — After 40-years of the slogan 'Have It Your Way,' Burger King is scrapping it in favor of the more personal 'Be Your Way.'
The chain says the new tag line will roll out across its marketing in the U.S., including in a TV ad that will begin airing Monday night. The line made its first appearance in an online video last month.  Burger King says that the new motto is intended to remind people that 'they can and should live how they want anytime. It’s ok to not be perfect … Self-expression is most important and it’s our differences that make us individuals instead of robots.'"  I'm so moved by the deep philosophy revealed here.  Next we'll hear about the importance of ketchup in fighting climate change. 

May 20, 2014       Permalink    

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:   From the superb Max Boot, who analyzes the disaster that is American defense under the current committee of flakes running the nation.  From Commentary: 

On February 24, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel walked into the Pentagon briefing room to deliver a speech unveiling the defense budget of the United States for the coming fiscal year. Two days later, gunmen without insignia on their uniforms began occupying key positions in Crimea. It was the start of a Russian takeover of the Ukrainian province, a move that has touched off the biggest crisis in Europe since the civil war in the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s.

The disjunction between those two events is startling—and worrying. The defense budget Hagel has produced is based on the assumption that (as President Obama often says) the “tide of war is receding.” Therefore, in this new era, the United States can afford to slash military manpower levels to focus on longer-term research-and-development projects while relying on a small number of Special Operations Forces and unmanned drone aircraft to protect American interests. Similar assumptions have been made before. They underlay the defense budget cuts of the 1920s, the late 1940s, and the 1990s. In each case, those assumptions were tragically flawed and left the United States unready to face conflicts once they erupted.

But never before has the refutation of the budget-cutting logic occurred within 48 hours of the budget’s unveiling.

COMMENT:  Read the whole piece.  As Boot points out, previous drawdowns have ended badly.  They almost have to, as hostile nations get the feeling they can take advantage of our weakness.  And modern militaries require highly skilled personnel and advanced weapons.  Both are difficult, if not impossible, to bring online quickly in the event of a crisis.

We are, under Obama, headed for major trouble in so many areas.  I almost have to believe that this was intentional, the product of minds that believe that America is the problem, not the solution.

May 20, 2014       Permalink 

MORE WORRIES FOR HILLARY – AT 8:23 A.M. ET:  This just isn't Hillary's month.  She can't catch a break.  Only the expectation of a grandchild brings happiness.  Politically, knives are suddenly out for her.  From Commentary:   

Are Democrats bored by the prospect of not having a presidential nomination contest in 2016? That’s the upshot of a statement made by Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick yesterday on CNN’s State of the Nation program in which he wondered if the “inevitability factor” would hurt Hillary Clinton’s prospects:

She’s an enormously capable candidate and leader. But I do worry about the inevitability because I think it’s off-putting to the average voter and I think that was an element of her campaign the last time. As an enthusiastic Democrat, I just hope that the people around her pay attention to that this time.

The need to learn the lessons of her disastrous failure to make good on similar predictions of inevitability before 2008 must haunt the Clinton camp. While Hillary doesn’t need Deval Patrick to remind her of this, the truth is, she is hoping that this time the boredom factor will work in her favor. Clinton and her backers haven’t had to do much to discourage other potential Democratic contenders from entering the race and most appear to have taken the hint, including potential troublemakers like California Governor Jerry Brown and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. The Clintons have to think that the unexpected emergence of Barack Obama in 2007 is a once-in-a-lifetime fluke that cannot possibly be repeated this time around and it’s difficult to argue the contrary case. The only other obvious Democratic possibilities for 2016 are Vice President Joe Biden, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and perhaps an outlier like Vermont Socialist Bernie Sanders or Montana’s Brian Schweitzer.

Neither Biden nor O’Malley—who is being openly mocked for asking Hillary’s permission before starting preparations for a candidacy—appear to scare the Clintons, and Sanders has no chance of being anything more than a gadfly left-wing alternative. Unless something completely unexpected happens, there is no reason to believe the 2016 Democratic race will be anything but a coronation. But the assumption that this will be an advantage in the general election may not be so smart.

COMMENT:  Several months ago it was conventional wisdom that this was Hillary's moment, that the Dems wouldn't dare take the nomination away from her a second time, and that the country "owed" her the right to be the first woman president. 

But the country doesn't owe the presidency to anyone.  And Obama's failure may sour Americans on the idea of another election devoted to the worship of race, gender, and ethnicity. 

It will be up to the Republicans, though, to nominate a first-class candidate.  If they don't, they deserve what they get in either a Hillary presidency, or, if she's out of it, someone possibly much worse. 

May 20, 2014       Permalink

EDUCATION OF A DIRECTOR – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  Related to our first post this morning, the new director of the FBI is reasserting that terrorism remains the Bureau's main concern.  This may disappoint the White House, but we're glad that Director Comey is getting it right.  From Mediaite: 

Al Qaeda’s affiliates are both stronger and more prolific than previously anticipated, FBI director James Comey told the New York Times on Monday. While the Times noted that some expected Comey to be the first post-9/11 FBI director to redirect his focus away from terrorism, he clarified that Islamic radicalism is as potent a force as ever.

“I didn’t have anywhere near the appreciation I got after I came into this job just how virulent those affiliates had become,” Comey told the Times when asked if he thought the threat of al Qaeda-related terrorism had diminished.

Referring to the terror group’s affiliates in Africa and the Middle East, Comey said that the threat of terrorism against American interest sis as present as ever. “There are both many more than I appreciated, and they are stronger than I appreciated,” he confessed.

Comey told the Times that he is convinced terrorism must remain the Bureau’s primary focus.

COMMENT:  Americans are an impatient people.  We want quick results, the easier the better.  But we should learn from the lesson of the Cold War that victory can take many years, even decades.  We are engaged in a battle of ideas and resources.  We should remember that when we choose our next president, for it is the president, despite the entreaties of Congress, who conducts our foreign and defense policies. 

Right now we have the weakest foreign-policy president in recent memory.  The results pour in every day.  Only two forces have gained under Obama's presidency – Communism, through the rise of the new Russia, and Islamic extremism, through the rise of Iran and the continued exploits of Al Qaeda.  The next president will have to clean up this mess.

May 20, 2014       Permalink

A REMINDER OF REALITY – AT 8:02 A.M. ET:  The president of the United States, and his main diplomatic adviser, Peter Pan, remind us that the war on terror is over.  Somehow I have my doubts.  I wonder why.  From The New York Times: 

The fiery British cleric who prosecutors said had “devoted his life to violent jihad” and sent young men around the world to train and fight was convicted Monday of all 11 terrorism-related charges against him.

Prosecutors had charged that the cleric, Mostafa Kamel Mostafa, a former imam at the Finsbury Park mosque in North London, helped to orchestrate the violent 1998 kidnappings of 16 American, British and Australian tourists in Yemen; tried to create a terrorist training camp in Bly, Ore.; and supported terrorism by sending one of his followers to train with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

Four hostages were killed during the kidnappings after their captors, a militant group allied with Mr. Mostafa, used them as human shields during a Yemeni rescue operation. “He jumped at opportunities across the globe to support this violent jihad,” a prosecutor, Ian McGinley, said in his summation last week.

The verdict came on the jury’s second day of deliberations in the sixth week of the trial in Federal District Court in Manhattan, marking the end of a long legal battle to bring Mr. Mostafa before a jury. Arrested in London in 2004 after the United States requested his extradition, Mr. Mostafa, who is also known as Abu Hamza al-Masri, was tried and convicted in Britain in 2006 on charges of soliciting murder and inciting racial hatred.

COMMENT:  And just a few weeks ago 300 Nigerian girls were kidnapped by an Islamic terror group.  The war on terror is far from over.  In a way, it may just be starting.  The question is whether the Obama generation is fighting to win.

May 20,  2014     Permalink

MAY 19,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:01 P.M. ET:

MUM FROM NUNN – The Dems have only two real chances to pick up a Senate seat this year.  One is in Georgia, where Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, has a shot at taking a seat away from our side.  But Nunn may have put her foot in it in answering a question of Obamacare.  From AP: "ATLANTA (AP) — Democratic Senate hopeful Michelle Nunn in Georgia declined to answer questions Monday about whether she would have voted for President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, as candidates in six states went through the final paces of bruising primary campaigns for congressional and statewide offices...In GOP-leaning Georgia, Nunn's smooth glide to the Democratic nomination bumped up against her awkward refusal in a weekend interview with NBC News to say whether she would have voted for the Affordable Care Act. When asked if she planned to answer the question and why she refused to do so, Nunn said in an interview with The Associated Press that she plans on 'continuing to answer the question by talking about where we need to go in the future and how we need to move forward.'"  Not satisfactory.  If I were the GOP down there, I'm hammer Nunn on this, demanding she take a stand.  Obamacare is unpopular in George, but popular with her base. 

YOU HADDA BE THERE – Unbelievable this morning.  Decapitated Jill Abramson, until last week the executive editor at The New York Times, delivered the commencement address at Wake Forest, and it was covered live and in color by major TV outlets.  I mean, live.  That moment, as if the president were speaking, rather than a deposed editor.  Well, I guess my former paper is an important institution, and Abramson was its first female editor.  But the emphasis was galling at a time when 300 Nigerian girls are still being held hostage.  And I think some of the feministas who appeared on TV to lament Abramson's firing are doing women far more harm than good.  If Abramson were judged by a higher standard than men, they'd have a point.  But it's pretty obvious that she, like many other men and women, was dismissed for reasonable cause.  Organizations will hesitate to hire women for high positions, though, unless they can discharge them and not face public abuse for doing so.  So women can be hurt, and held back, by unjust charges of discrimination.

CHILLING – From The Blaze:  "First lady Michelle Obama is encouraging students to monitor their older relatives, friends and co-workers for any racially insensitive comments they might make, and to challenge those comments whenever they’re made.  The first lady spoke on Friday to graduating high school students in Topeka, Kansas, and in remarks released over the weekend, Obama said students need to police family and friends because federal laws can only go so far in stopping racism."  Will someone tell Ms. Obama that we don't spy on our parents in America.  In fascist societies, maybe.  In red societies, maybe.  But not here, Ms. First Lady.  Young people can be encouraged to fight racism, to reject it, but we don't monitor our relatives. 

PRETTY PLEASE – The major TV networks are hurting.  And they are literally begging for viewers.  It's hard to beg, of course, when you're driving a Mercedes, but they do it.  From AP:  "NEW YORK (AP) -- One day into the annual week where television's biggest networks reveal their future programming plans and it was clear what the buzzword was going to be: Eventize.  No matter whether it's a word or not, broadcasters talked frequently about their desire to create big events that viewers need to watch immediately for fear of being left out of the cultural conversation.  Networks are adjusting to the changed world of how people watch their programs: hours or weeks later on DVR, online or on-demand. But the industry's financial structure hasn't caught up yet, so viewers who watch when a program is first aired - once the only way to watch - are considered more valuable.  That's why Fox is putting on a live production of "Grease" and NBC is remaking "The Music Man." Fox is recreating an Evel Knievel motorcycle jump. ABC touts its Oscars telecast and other awards shows. NBC locked up Olympics rights through 2032, and CBS won a bidding war to show NFL football on Thursday night.  Sports usually gets little or no attention in network sales pitches to advertisers. Not this year. ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox all gave sports a starring role. Why? Very few people DVR sports events."  Translated:  When you watch "live" you can't eliminate the commercials. 

May 19,  2014     Permalink

IS CHRISTIE IN? – AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  Remember Chris Christie?  He's the governor of New Jersey, and was, until recently, a hot presidential contender on the Republican side.  Then he ran into a minor scandal called Bridgegate, the details of which are too boring to repeat.  But that, and serious budget problems in New Jersey, have thrown Christie off.  He's not mentioned as much for the presidency any longer...but he seems to be trying a comeback.  He's just delivered a hard-hitting and very good speech on foreign policy that is reviving talk of a presidential bid.  From The Hill: 

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) delivered a harsh indictment of President Obama's foreign policy on Sunday, saying that a “lack of American leadership” had disappointed allies and emboldened the country’s enemies.

"The rest of the world watches in desperation and hope that America will realize and act upon once again its indispensable place in the world," Christie said Sunday at the Champions of Jewish Values International awards gala in New York, according to the Associated Press. "We must lead."

The New Jersey governor said it was "unthinkable" that the United States had retreated from an active foreign policy and allowed adversaries to go unchecked.

“We see Russian activism once again rearing its head in the world, we see an America that backed away from a commitment made by the president of the United States in Syria, we see a country, our country, permitting even a thought of a terrorist state like Iran having nuclear capability,” Christie said.

“It's unthinkable that the America that has led in the way that it has always led this world would permit that to happen,” he continued. “Yet we are sitting in a world, we are watching the vacuum that the lack of American leadership has created being filled and it is almost never filled by virtue, it is almost always filled by evil.”

He added that sometimes standing up for American values would require "sacrifice."

"We need to stand once again loudly for these values, and sometimes that is going to mean standing in some very messy, difficult places and standing strong and hard for those things that we believe in," Christie said, according to CNN. "And it will mean sacrifice from the people of our country."

For Christie, a potential 2016 presidential contender, the appearance was a chance to address doubts about his foreign policy prowess.

COMMENT:  A fine speech, and vintage Christie.  The question, though, is how badly Christie has been damaged by local scandal.  Another question involves his image as a bit of a bully.

If he can deliver good speeches on foreign policy, and get past the scandal problem – minor by most political standards – he might regain his momentum.  But he hasn't got much time before the 2016 race starts.

May 19, 2014       Permalink

ANOTHER RUSSIAN ADVANTAGE – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:   The question is repeatedly asked:  After Ukraine, what next for the aggressive president of Russia, Vladimir Putin?   From Reuters: 

BERLIN (Reuters) - NATO would struggle to defend the Baltic states from any Russian aggression "with conventional means", Germany's Spiegel magazine reported on Sunday, citing sources close to the organization and a draft of a NATO planning document.

Eastern European states are nervous about Russia after it annexed Ukraine's Crimea region and massed 40,000 troops on Ukraine's borders.

The United States has sent 600 soldiers to the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - and Poland to take part in exercises to bolster NATO's presence in eastern Europe.

How many did we send?  Some 600?  This is a show of force? 

"Russia's ability and intention to undertake significant military action without much forewarning poses a far-reaching threat for the maintenance of security and stability in the European-Atlantic area," the weekly magazine said, citing a NATO defense planning committee document.

Russia is capable of building up a local or regional military threat at short notice and at an arbitrary spot, the draft document continued.

However, Europe at the end of the Cold War had concluded that "it could reduce its capabilities for fighting conventional, large scale and high intensity conflicts in Europe".

"While we never comment on alleged leaks or on our defense plans, NATO's core task is collective defense and we will do what it takes to defend any ally under attack," said NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu.

COMMENT:   Oh, come on.  NATO is the United States, with a little bit of help from our friends.  And NATO is weak right now.

Putin's stance on Ukraine has actually softened a bit in the last week, possibly in anticipation of a new Ukrainian government, after elections, that may be more flexible in its dealings with Moscow.  But Putin clearly intends to rebuild the old Soviet Empire, and the weakness of the Baltic states will obviously enter into his plans.

I don't think 600 troops quite does it.  Of course, Obama sent a very dangerous signal early in his administration when he canceled promised anti-missile systems for Poland the Czech Republic.  It was one of the first actions that shook Europe's faith in the new American president, whom they'd thought was almost godlike.  Not quite a god.

May 19, 2014       Permalink

THE HILLARY FACTOR – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:   I'm sure all of you have noticed that press coverage of Hillary Clinton is changing.  It's becoming more balanced, more critical.  She had a terrible month, capped by the charge that, as secretary of state, she didn't designate the group that kidnapped the Nigerian girls as a terrorist entity. 

She's also getting heat because the Clinton Foundation, of which she's a major part, accepted donations from the sultan of Brunei, who has a ghastly record on, among other things, women's rights.  And questions concerning Hillary's health are gaining traction. 

Howard Kurtz, of Fox, is not predicting happy times for the would-be president: 

Can Hillary Clinton really be that popular?

Much of the media is clearly ready for a coronation, but is that related to reality?

Her latest numbers are impressive, but there are reasons to be skeptical.

In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, “most Americans have a favorable view of former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and think she will win the 2016 presidential election.”

Some 57 percent of Americans “who were aware of Clinton” (isn’t that everyone?) have a favorable opinion, while 43 percent see her negatively. And “nearly one-quarter of Republicans said they had a favorable view of Clinton.” That’s pretty remarkable in a polarized electorate, suggesting a certain crossover appeal.

Clinton was most frequently described as “strong,” but “‘Benghazi’ was the term that stood out most when respondents who said they had an unfavorable view of Clinton were asked to explain this perspective.”

And therein lies the rub.

Hillary is not campaigning now (though she is, sort of) and is largely out of the line of fire (speculation about her health notwithstanding). The moment she gets in the race, she faces a relentless barrage and her numbers start to drop.

Right now, she can go on “The View” and wish Barbara Walters a warm farewell. As a candidate, she’d be asked about health care and Nigeria and Iran and what she accomplished at the State Department.

The fact that people expect her to win the presidency is noteworthy, although two years from now it also casts her, in an odd way, as the incumbent.

COMMENT:  A rule of thumb holds that a presidential candidate starts to lose points as soon as he or she announces for the office.  Also, Hillary retains a certain sentimental popularity, but in a real election she'll be up against a real candidate.  If the Republicans choose wisely, she would face real competition.  I think she's very vulnerable, and the "first woman president" argument may not fly if the country is in poor shape.  She may regret having been part of the Obama administration.

May 19, 2014       Permalink 

IRAN TALKS FALTER – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  We're getting snippets of information after the latest round of nuclear talks with Iran.  They all point in the same direction – these talks are faltering.  There was some false optimism a week ago, but it is all gone.  From The New York Times:

LONDON — The latest round of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers ended on Friday in Vienna, with Iranian and American officials saying that progress was slow and difficult, with serious gaps between the two sides on basic issues like the size of any nuclear enrichment capability Iran would be permitted to retain.

A senior American official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic negotiations, said that Iran needed to be more realistic in the talks. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told Iranian news media that “there was no tangible progress in this round of the talks” and that differences were too large to begin drafting an accord. But he said that the talks would continue next month.

The American official agreed with Mr. Araghchi that “significant gaps” remained after three days of talks. “Iran still has to make some hard choices,” the official said. “We are concerned that progress is not being made and that time is short.”

A senior European diplomat said that “we had expected a little more flexibility on their side.” Iranian officials, for their part, told the IRNA news agency that “the West has to abandon its excessive demands,” and that “we had expected the Western side to become more realistic, but this doesn’t appear to be the case yet.”

COMMENT:  Look, the main country here is, as always, the United States.  Obama and Kerry have so badly botched these talks that it's difficult to see a way out.  And yet, if the talks break down, what alternatives exist?  Obama says all options are on the table, presumably including a military strike, but no one takes him seriously. 

This is what weakness looks like.  We're seeing the results rather quickly.

May 19,  2014     Permalink